Weekly Fundamental Analysis Forecast – May 26, 2025

Trade tensions between the United States and the European Union escalated after U.S. President Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to impose a 50% tariff on all EU goods from June 1, citing a lack of progress in negotiations. While the EU’s trade chief reiterated the bloc’s commitment to securing a deal grounded in mutual respect, the White House’s firm stance has introduced renewed uncertainty into global markets. The EU, one of America’s largest trading partners, has warned of retaliatory measures, further raising the risk of a transatlantic trade conflict. Market sentiment has turned cautious amid fears of disrupted supply chains, reduced export activity, and higher input costs, particularly for sectors heavily reliant on transatlantic trade, such as automotive, industrial manufacturing, and consumer goods. Renewed tensions contributed to broader investor wariness, with risk-sensitive assets showing signs of pressure. As both sides dig in on their positions, the standoff threatens to undermine confidence and trigger heightened volatility in the near term.

Wall Street enters the week with heightened anticipation surrounding Nvidia’s quarterly earnings report, as macroeconomic headwinds and geopolitical tensions weigh on investor sentiment. After a strong equity rally earlier this year, markets hit a pause amid growing concerns over the U.S. fiscal outlook. Rising Treasury yields, especially the 30-year surpassing 5%, reflect fears that escalating federal deficits may pressure long-term borrowing costs and the broader economy. Investor focus is now squarely on Nvidia, seen as a bellwether for artificial intelligence and broader tech sector momentum. As the last of the “Magnificent Seven” to report this cycle, the AI darling’s performance could reignite enthusiasm. Market participants also remain cautious over potential U.S.-China trade implications following Nvidia’s recent $5.5 billion charge tied to export restrictions on its chips. Coupled with Trump’s tariff threats, Nvidia’s guidance could influence the broader market trajectory.

Oil prices remain under pressure due to expectations of increased output from major producers and rising concerns about global demand amid U.S. fiscal uncertainty. The recent sell-off was triggered by reports from Bloomberg that OPEC+ was considering a third consecutive production hike, with one proposal involving a July output increase of 411,000 barrels per day, triple the group’s previously planned rise. The potential supply boost comes as oil markets already grapple with subdued demand signals, amplifying downside risks. In parallel, investors are growing uneasy over mounting U.S. debt. A weak auction of U.S. Treasury securities and a sweeping tax-cut and spending bill advancing through Congress have added to fears about fiscal sustainability, shaking broader market confidence. The combination of looming supply increases and macroeconomic unease has reintroduced volatility to energy markets, just as they were finding stability earlier in the month. All eyes now turn to OPEC+’s June 1 meeting for clarity on the cartel’s next move.